rd,

I have a book Baseball Between the Numbers by a team of writers from the Baseball Prospectus. It is not nearly as good a read as the old Bill James Abstracts in the 80s. But it explores some interesting topics. Many times, they mention using simulations (one called BLOOP) to test hypotheses. For example, they showed that the most effective batting order was in descending order of OBP. But only to the magnitude of 10 runs (about one win) per year.

The point is, we were losing 3-1 in the 7th. We had to score AT LEAST 3 RUNS in 9 outs while keeping the Cardinals scoreless in 6 outs in order to win in regulation (we won't go into Gar's hideous record in extra-innings). There are few circumstances more pregnant with runs than 1st and 3rd with no outs. The AVERAGE EXPECTATION is twins. Garner had an abortion instead.

~Crash