The key when looking at blown saves is to remember that they occur anytime a lead is blown (at any point in the game). I remember one of Valverde's blown saves coming when he came in the 6th or 7th inning. Then, you factor in the number of blown saves where he surrenders the lead, but does not add a deficit (the game is tied). I split the difference between Smith and the conventional wisdom. I think having a good closer is a lot like having a good placekicker. You don't notice the placekicker until he starts blowing field goals. However, history shows that some relievers can't overcome the mental hurdle. However, if you look at people like Jonathan Papelbon, Eric Gagne, and others it shows that closers can be created out of struggling starters. I keep going back to the shelf life question. I don't want to give someone a four year contract when we can expect only one or two more dominant seasons.

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