Barzilla, again I disagree with you in saying that this team cannot contend. I think it is possible. It probably takes a lot of luck and perhaps an addition at the deadline. As I said above, I think the more probable outcome is around .500. But I don't agree with your analysis. All 3 of the guys who have been jettisoned are likely to regress, based on their projections. The two position players (Wiggy and Loretta) were also among the worst defensive players on the Astros. The surprising thing is that the total (offense and defensive wins) value of those three players is not that much greater than the replacements. That's why the Wins Above Replacement (WAR) calculation for the Astros, assuming appropriate use of platoons, comes out to 82 - 84 wins, using UZR defensive stats and CHONE offensive projections. I'll admit that there is probably a lot more down side risk than up side luck potential. We rely on too many old players, and collapses are possible, plus the team's depth is paper thin, which means above average injuries could devastate the team. So it's not like I have a lot of excitement about this season, but I wouldn't be as gloomy as you indicate.