Your points are well taken, but we have a disconnect. Even I agree that we didn't lose much from the three (which I disagree) we still lose from the huge Pythagorean bump we got last season. Whatever the reason for it, it likely won't happen again if history is any indication. In fact, teams that had huge bumps recently (Mariners, Dbacks, ect) fell back to earth even after improving their clubs for the next season on paper. All the Astros have done is lost talent. When you couple that with the hangover from last season you get a team that will likely finish in the mid 70s in wins. Yes, they could overachieve again. I just wouldn't bet on it.

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