barzilla wrote:
Your points are well taken, but we have a disconnect. Even I agree that we didn't lose much from the three (which I disagree) we still lose from the huge Pythagorean bump we got last season. Whatever the reason for it, it likely won't happen again if history is any indication. In fact, teams that had huge bumps recently (Mariners, Dbacks, ect) fell back to earth even after improving their clubs for the next season on paper. All the Astros have done is lost talent. When you couple that with the hangover from last season you get a team that will likely finish in the mid 70s in wins. Yes, they could overachieve again. I just wouldn't bet on it.
The Pythag is not a good way of projecting teams. It only uses outcomes without determining how you got there. It was never intended for projection. You have to assume that everybody played just like they did last year in order to use the Pythag as a projection device. What the Pythag doesn't pick up is that several players underperformed their projections last year...that is one reason why the RS-RA differential is what it is. Lefty also makes a good point. Ultimately, the wins above replacement forecast of defense, pitching, and hitting is based on player projections, and it may prove to be wrong, but it would indicate that the team is mediocre, but not terrible.