I'm just going according to recent history where the Mariners and Dbacks (the last two Pythag champions in ) fell back hard even though they improved their teams on paper. Whether Pythag holds up perfectly is not my concern. My concern is that we will at least give some of that back naturally in addition to whatever losses we may have. Even if you might assert a meager one or two game loss with the loss of roster filler and the aging of the roster, we are still looking at a six or seven game deficit from last year. That means that the best we can hope for is about 80 wins. With the Cubs being where they are and the NL East being where it is at, that puts us out of the playoffs. At that point, we are out of the playoffs whether we are 81-81 or 70-92. Arguing over which is more probable amounts to nothing more than window dressing.

I am not changing my stance here one iota. People that have known me long enough know this argument. If you have a veteran that you know will produce at a below average clip then why not play a young player that will likely play at a below average clip, but might play at an average or better clip? If you want the chance to win 85 wins or more then you have to go away from veterans whose ceiling is low. This means going with Towles behind the plate and Johnson at third. I recognize that the scouting reports and past results indicate their success is ify. Yet, you know that Quintero will suck at the plate and we are pretty sure that Bloone will be behind the curve. Additionally, playing them gives you some idea of what they will give or not give you in 2010.

I am a senior writer at thefantasyfix.com and a staff writer at bigleaguesmag.com. The Hall of Fame Index is also still for sale and as relevant as ever.