Break out players? Just as a guess.....I'm going with Jordan Lyles. Lyles was very unlucky last year and pitched much better than his ERA. He is still very young and should have a steep improvement curve. He has a good head on his shoulders, which is necessary to learning and improving. He also seems to be gaining velocity as he develops. If his luck goes in the opposite direction this season, I could envision a high 3s or low 4s ERA over 180 or so innings.

ZiPS projections are out for the Astros, and it is VERY ugly. Wesley Wright is the only pitcher projected to be above average (yikes!). On the offensive side, it projects Matt Dominguez to be the 2nd best hitter (behind Altuve) on the team! That's a bad sign. Of course the projection doesnt factor in a full season's at-bats for Lowrie otherwise i think he would be #2....


Based on OPS+, Carlos Pena is projected as the best offensive player on the Astros.  The rankings for Astros OPS+ above 100: Pena (111), Lowrie (108), Altuve (101).  Justin Maxwell is 91, and everybody else is projected to be way below average.  Based on WAR (which takes into account defense and position), the top ranked Astros are: Altuve, Lowrie, Dominguez, Pena, Laird, and Maxwell.  It's worth noting that the projections show Singleton as among the top ranked Astros in both OPS+ and WAR if he were to make the roster.  If ZIPS had its way, Brett Wallace would kicked to the curb (he is shown with negative WAR) and replaced by Singleton.

All of the pitchers' projections took a big hit based on moving to the AL.  Some of them would probably be above average in the NL.  This is pretty clear from the projection system's creator, who states in the comments (responding to a question about Alex White moving from Coors) who says that the effect of moving to the AL is bigger than the effect of moving away from Coors Field.


Last Edited By: Clack Jan 4 13 11:21 AM. Edited 2 times.