Jeez....I guess the Brewers wanted to keep him for awhile. That's a steep length of contract..........
Braun a Rich-Man
Braun a Rich-Man
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Ryan Braun Signs for 8 Years
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 Flastrohs |
Ryan Braun Signs for 8 Years |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 17375 (05/15/2008 10:36 AM) Astros Fan |
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proark |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 1238 (05/15/2008 11:14 AM) Astros Fan |
He is a good player but this is ridiculous. You know we talk about guys like A-Rod or Zito throwing off the curve and forcing teams to sign larger and larger
contracts but I think this is the real devil of the deal. One of the ways you build a champion is by signing veteran players to larger contracts while keeping
your young superstar talent cheap. the freaking players union (the most powerful of the sports unions) says it is okay to give these guys smaller contracts so
why do this. I understand giving a good player a bonus a year or so before arbitration or free agency so he "feels committed" to your organization
but this is over the line. This is the third (I think) deal such as this this season and I hope it doesn't encourage others to follow suit or make young
superstars (J.D. Drew anyone) start to think they can push the team around. MLB is going to need to start concerning themselves with character issues like the
NFL so they don't have more hold-outs and young guys who come in thinking the name on their back is bigger than the name on the front of their jersey.
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 RyanED |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 30517 (05/15/2008 11:15 AM) Golden Boy |
It makes you wonder when the Houston Astros are going to give Hunter Pence a big payday, because he's more or less in the same rookie class as Ryan Braun.
I don't want to hear about how much Hunter Pence has struggled so far this season, because he was every bit as good as Ryan Braun as a rookie ( factoring
the injuries and the games he missed, not to mention the fact he was called up a couple of months into the season ).
And yes, I know I'm a homer because Hunter Pence is my favorite ballplayer in all of baseball. I need to get his autograph on a baseball one of these days. I'd treasure ( glance at ) that great souvenir on my computer desk every time I came on the Internet, which is a lot. 
I would show off the ball in an acrylic display case with a wooden platform. In fact, this would be a good contest for Richard Justice or Jose de Jesus Ortiz to hold on one of their blogs on Chron.com. The winner of the contest will receive a Hunter Pence autographed baseball. That way everybody would have an equal chance to get his autograph. As some guy on YouTube posted, we already know Hunter Pence likes to sign numerous bats. I'd want a Hunter Pence autographed baseball though! It's not as easy to display an autographed bat around the house, but a bat is usually better than a ball ( value wise ).
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RyanED |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 30518 (05/15/2008 11:25 AM) Golden Boy |
In fact, Hunter Pence has been heating up at the plate so much lately... His overall numbers right now look pretty good. His OPS is a little low ( .771 ), but
he raised his batting average to .281 and he does have four home runs with twenty-two RBIs.
Hunter Pence is on pace to hit .281 with 21 home runs and 91 RBIs this season. He's also on pace to steal 22 bases this year. A 20-20 player who hits .280? That's great! Not quite the 30-30 player who hits .300 like I had predicted prior to the season, but that's still a really awesome player and borderline superstar if you ask me. I still feel Hunter Pence is capable of being a .900-plus OPS player, but definitely in the high .800's he'll be at by the end of the year.
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Clack |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 14058 (05/15/2008 11:35 AM) Astros Fan |
I don't really like the trend toward the lengthy contracts for young players who are still under team control for a long time. I didn't like the Tulo
contract and I don't really like Braun's contract. And it's not because I don't like them as players....they are great young players. But I
think it has become trendy for people to believe that this is an indication of "smart front office management." (The Indians started this idea in the
90's, signing up young guys like Lofton, Belle, and Ramirez, and that was smart; but those contracts were not as lengthy as the new trend.) I think there
is a lot of risk to teams who do this. Besides obvious risks like injury, there is also the possibility that you have miscalculated the "upside" and
staying power of the player's talents. These contracts are based on forecasting that Tulo and Braun are on Hall of Fame tracks, which could be true...but
it could be wrong too. How many great looking young major league players have turned out to be flash in the pans or at least 2 or 3 year wonders? Quite a few.
I also worry that giving young players a big pay day so early will reduce their internal drive or hunger to excel.
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proark |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 1239 (05/15/2008 11:36 AM) Astros Fan |
That's a cool video of Hunter. I was at that show and got a bat signed by him. Not only is he a nice kid but when my dad mentioned that he was one of the
reasons the Astros were fun to watch Hunter got this big smile and took a picture with him... my dad hadn't even paid for the picture Hunter was just happy
to do it.
Yeah... Hunter Pence is one of my favorites. I am trying to get a new job this week and if I do I may celebrate by buying an official Pence jersey. I have a replica berkman and if Tejada makes the all-star team I would want one of those jerseys too. |
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RyanED |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 30520 (05/15/2008 11:41 AM) Golden Boy |
Clack wrote: Good point, Clack.
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Clack |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 14059 (05/15/2008 11:42 AM) Astros Fan |
Baseballanalysits.com has an evaluation of the sophomore seasons so far of Braun, Tulowitsky, Pence, Chris Young, Escobar and Loney. I don't necessariy
agree with what their view of Pence, but here it is:
Pence's 2008 numbers are a little close to what people expected of him, based on his minor league and college numbers. His on-base rate is
disappointing and his strikeouts have risen a bit in 2008. He'll likely put up pretty good numbers for a while, and maybe even appear in an All-Star game
or two, but he's not going to be a star.
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GodFamilyAstros |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 116 (05/15/2008 11:54 AM) ALL-STAR |
OK, I'll take the other side. I think this is a good move for the Brewers. Obviously, they are playing with MLB monopoly money, so it is difficult to put
the amount of this contract in perspective. $45 million dollars over 8 years is "only" an average of $5.6 million per season. 1/ If he goes on to
play the next 8 years similar to what he has done last year and the first part of this season, it will be a bargain and the GM will be considered a genius. 2/
If he has a good, but not great career with flashes of brilliance, the team still benefits. He is now the face of the Brewers for the next decade. Other
free agents that consider coming to Milwaukee will see that they are making long term investments in key players. 3/ If he turns out to be a one-year wonder
and an average player, he could be dealt to some other team in the future with the Brewers picking up a portion of the tab. There is no such thing as a deal
without risk. Two examples quickly come to mind: Woody Williams and Matt Morris. 4/ He is injured and unable to continue his career. A smart management
team purchases insurance to cover their losses in this situation.
As an Astros fan, I don't like this move, because he is a dangerous hitter and will probably deposit more than a couple of balls in the Crawford boxes over the coming years. |
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RyanED |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 30522 (05/15/2008 12:04 PM) Golden Boy |
I think if the Brewers end up losing Ben Sheets in free agency next year...
Signing Ryan Braun long-term is all a moot point. The Brewers will end up losing key players and they'll take a step back in future years. All of their young and talented hitters will be a moot point. Hopefully we'll see Ben Sheets pitching for the Houston Astros next year. The Houston Astros will likely win the 2009 World Series, just like the Houston Rockets will win the 2009 NBA Finals, but we have to be a little more patient as fans -- one more year of waiting isn't the end of the world. Perhaps, maybe not, we'll see. The only concern when it comes to Ben Sheets: Some team is going to overpay him, and he has a history of injuries -- not the type of workhorse who can give you 200 innings per year. At least, he hasn't been a workhorse during the past three years. He was a workhorse earlier in his career, pitching 200-plus innings with ease.
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Flastrohs |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 17377 (05/15/2008 12:10 PM) Astros Fan |
GodFamilyAstros wrote: Maybe so...but his defense in LF makes El Caballo look like Carl Yastrzemski....... 
Last Edited By: Flastrohs
05/15/2008 12:12 PM.
Edited 1 times.
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RyanED |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 30524 (05/15/2008 12:44 PM) Golden Boy |
Flastros, that's a nice old school photo of Carl Yastrzemski.
Speaking of something that is old school... Think about the 2003 movie called "Old School." Starring Luke Wilson, Will Ferrell and Vince Vaughn. I have this movie on DVD. It's a funny film! I'm probably going to go watch it again before the Astros game starts.
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TheRedSon |
Braun and Ramirez | ||
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Astros Fan
Posts: 980 (05/15/2008 2:21 PM) |
You know the union actually hates these deals. In three or four years Ramirez will probably be the best player in the NL and Braun may be the NL's best
hitter. These contracts are way under market value for this kind of talent. All long contracts carry a great deal of risk, but the flip side of this gamble
is getting Manny Ramirez's bat for Morgan Ensberg's pay check.
Over the next eight years the Brewers are going to pay Braun less than half of what the Astros are paying for Carlos Lee. It's still early, but Braun looks like he's going to have a better career than Lee right now. Basically, all of these guys gave their teams huge discounts down the road for more pay today and job security. I like the gamble. I really like the Brewers' approach here. Not only did they get a great bat for a great price long term, but they've put a lot of pressure now on Fielder, Hardy and Weeks to play up to Braun's level to get their own pay days. |
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CC Hookem |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 267 (05/15/2008 10:30 PM) Astros Fan |
When I opened this thread I was shocked to see so many have issues with this deal. Man if we get a chance to sign Hunter to a similar contract I hope the
Stros jump on it. I'm sure that contract is full of buyouts for both sides, but man that is a cheap deal. 8 years 45 mill? Now if we are talking 3 years
45 mill then maybe it is a little expensive.
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Clack |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 14079 (05/16/2008 8:02 AM) Astros Fan |
CC Hookem wrote: Well, I hope you realize it's not that cheap because you are buying out a bunch of years when you normally pay
him below market. For several years in the intial part of that contract, the team is paying him more than $5 million per year more than they would normally
pay him. Sure, the team gets an advantage in the last 2 or 3 years of the contract, but when you take into account time value of money, I doubt that it is a
huge savings to the team. I think these kind of deals probably make more sense once the player has reached arbitration at least. But even then the team can
make a huge mistake. Suppose the Astros had signed Ensberg to a 6 year deal after his 2005 season?
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RyanED |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 30659 (05/16/2008 8:48 AM) Golden Boy |
CC Hookem wrote: I'd like to see Hunter Pence signed long term ( locked up ) also.
In fact, I'm pleased with most of his offensive numbers right now ( except his OPS is a little too low for my taste, but that will improve as this season progresses ). I also think he'll be hitting over .300 in a few more weeks.
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Flastrohs |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 17452 (05/16/2008 9:06 AM) Astros Fan |
Clack wrote: I'd be complaining if we had signed Ensberg to a long-term deal.... What if Braun has some career ending injury or his numbers start going down(which isn't likely)? I think Milwaukee should have waited on signing him to a lengthy contract....and not for 8 years. |
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bsb8532 |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 686 (05/16/2008 9:48 AM) Astros Fan |
The Brewers will probably deal Fielder in the offseason for a nice bounty. He is a Boras guy who wants a big payday (i.e. won't sign a similar deal to
Braun). In addition, the Brewers 2 best prospects are 2 1B's playing corner OF. That means one of those guys can play one corner spot and the other has
no place to go if Fielder stays. There are plenty of teams with solid farm systems who could use a 40 bomb 1B.
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RyanED |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 30667 (05/16/2008 9:51 AM) Golden Boy |
Flastrohs wrote: I agree Flastros, but only because I feel the Brewers should have waited to see how the future of their starting rotation and bullpen pans out. The Brewers
face the likely prospect of having no real Ace next year ( Ben Sheets will probably take a bigger payday from another team ), and their bullpen lacks a
reliable closer. I don't care what type of sensational lineup the Brewers have next year - no Ace and no Closer equals no chance.
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Flastrohs |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 17454 (05/16/2008 9:54 AM) Astros Fan |
bsb8532 wrote: I think he would be better suited in the AL as a DH...he's not that good at first base....but he's big enough 
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RyanED |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 30669 (05/16/2008 10:12 AM) Golden Boy |
I'm 6'5 and 332 right now.
ESPN.com lists Prince Fielder at 5-11 and 270 pounds. I'm just not buying he's only 270 pounds! Granted, he's strong as a bull with a ton of muscle mass. He looks bigger than me when I watch him on television. Then again, the TV usually makes somebody look bigger than they appear to be. I'd probably look like Godzilla if I was on television! Flastros, you will like this video.
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Flastrohs |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 17456 (05/16/2008 10:23 AM) Astros Fan |
RyanED wrote: Lysol time So much for an appetite
Last Edited By: Flastrohs
05/16/2008 10:33 AM.
Edited 1 times.
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TheRedSon |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 1030 (05/16/2008 1:45 PM) |
Well, I hope you realize it's not that cheap because you are buying out a bunch of years when you normally pay him below market. For several years in the intial part of that contract, the team is paying him more than $5 million per year more than they would normally pay him. Sure, the team gets an advantage in the last 2 or 3 years of the contract, but when you take into account time value of money, I doubt that it is a huge savings to the team. I think these kind of deals probably make more sense once the player has reached arbitration at least. But even then the team can make a huge mistake. Suppose the Astros had signed Ensberg to a 6 year deal after his 2005 season? You make several good points Clack.
I hear you on Ensberg... He was 29 in the 2005 season though. Even if his performance had projected on course from there the Astros would have seen diminishing returns. Braun is 24 and he's already hit 19 more home runs than Berkman did through his age 24 season. Didn't the Astros give Berkman a similar deal in 2002 (five years at $35.5 million. 500K, 3.5 mil, 6.5 mil, 10.5 mil, 14.5 mil). I personally think the length of the contract is scarier than the amount or the timing. |
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Clack |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 14083 (05/16/2008 4:05 PM) Astros Fan |
RedSon, I was assuming that Braun is overpaid (relative to what he is required to be paid) in the early years of the contract and likely to be underpaid
(relative to market) in the latter years. I think that is the only way it makes sense for Braun to accept the contract, i.e., get a big pay day early. By
referring to time value, I am talking about the present value of the deal (e.g., any salary savings in the latter years should be discounted, meaning they have
a lower financial value to the team). I agree that Brewers wanted all the cost certainty benefits you mention, and I'm sure it's a beneficial deal for
them if everything works out like they hope. My only point is that the benefits are lower than they seem on the surface (because the benefits to the team are
in the future), and the team takes a calculated risk that a young player with limited track record can produce at an all star level for 8 years. That
doesn't always happen...think about Hidalgo who got a big contract after his monster 2000 season, but was never the same afterward. I don't really care
what the Brewers do, but I would hope the Astros are careful in doing such deals, and I suspect that Drayton is very careful with his money.
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RyanED |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 30695 (05/16/2008 4:12 PM) Golden Boy |
Clack, what do you think the future holds for Ben Sheets?
I'll break the opinions down into three scenarios. 1. The Brewers re-sign Ben Sheets long term. 2. The Brewers trade Ben Sheets before this year's non-waiver trading deadline, especially if they fall out of the playoff race. That's quite possible when you consider how poorly they have played since the season-ending injury to Yovani Gallardo. 3. The Brewers simply lose him to another team as a free agent next offseason. I mean honestly, I'd give all three of those scenarios a 33.3 % chance of happening. A roll of the dice...
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TheRedSon |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 1033 (05/16/2008 4:53 PM) |
RedSon, I was assuming that Braun is overpaid (relative to what he is required to be paid) in the early years of the contract and likely to be underpaid (relative to market) in the latter years. I think that is the only way it makes sense for Braun to accept the contract, i.e., get a big pay day early. By referring to time value, I am talking about the present value of the deal (e.g., any salary savings in the latter years should be discounted, meaning they have a lower financial value to the team). I agree that Brewers wanted all the cost certainty benefits you mention, and I'm sure it's a beneficial deal for them if everything works out like they hope. My only point is that the benefits are lower than they seem on the surface (because the benefits to the team are in the future), and the team takes a calculated risk that a young player with limited track record can produce at an all star level for 8 years. That doesn't always happen...think about Hidalgo who got a big contract after his monster 2000 season, but was never the same afterward. I don't really care what the Brewers do, but I would hope the Astros are careful in doing such deals, and I suspect that Drayton is very careful with his money.I don't think the Astros really saved themselves any money in the deal with Hidalgo though. They gave him $17.5 million through his arbitration years and $12.5 in 2003. It looks like the Brewers may get two years from Braun for that same $12.5 million or less. I'd be nervous if the Astros made this kind of deal, but the Astros have more resources than the Brewers and this might be the kind of gamble they have to make to be competitive long term. I think the downside of this deal is they wind up paying $5.5 million a year for a guy that hits like Ensberg or Hidalgo (like they did through their mid 20's that is), and that's not really all that bad. |
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Eric |
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Astros Fan
Posts: 444 (05/16/2008 9:10 PM) Astros Fan | |||
6'....
