Tonight's game may be an important for the direction of the Astros' season. I'm not saying that the game, itself, is a turning point. But I think
we need to see a great, dominant Roy Oswalt again. Or, at the least, we want to see Roy Oswalt holding the Rangers' offense down enough that he can pitch
into the 8th inning.
At this point, the Astros' rotation looks like the part of the team which is most likely to ruin the team's hopes for contending this season. That's not based on what the starters have done so far; in fact, with the current offense, I would be satisfied if the rotation, overall, performed like it has so far this season. But we see signs of stress in the rotation which call that into question.
Shawn Chacon had a stinker in Arlington, and I'm not complaining, because he was due for that kind of game after performing better than we had a right to expect for many games. This isn't that surprising, because I would expect a low- to mid- 4's ERA from Chacon, and he is approaching that range now. If he keeps his ERA in that range, he will be fine for his role, but he isn't to be mistaken for a top of the rotation pitcher. Backe is the scariest problem, because he seems to be getting by on smoke and mirrors. He is leaving lots of guys on base and showing a high WHIP, which often isn't a good sign. Chris Sampson has been so bad that we have threads suggesting that Moehler should take his place; who would have predicted that line of thinking? Cassel in Round Rock might be a useful part of the rotation in the future, but he shouldn't be mistaken for a miracle cure. Getting Wandy back in the rotation will be a good thing, but we haven't seen enough of him this season to know whether he can have a breakthrough year.
So, that's where I get back to tonight's game. With all the signs that we may see some decline in other parts of our rotation, Oswalt is the best hope for an improvement which offsets that decline. I think the odds are good that Oswalt can get his ERA into his normal low- to mid- 3's by season end. Given his current ERA in the 5's, he will have to pitch some great games to achieve that accomplishment. Of all the potential positive things one could hope for in the rotation, this is the most probable.
If we want to see how things are looking for the season, then we need to see if Roy O is the stopper tonight.
At this point, the Astros' rotation looks like the part of the team which is most likely to ruin the team's hopes for contending this season. That's not based on what the starters have done so far; in fact, with the current offense, I would be satisfied if the rotation, overall, performed like it has so far this season. But we see signs of stress in the rotation which call that into question.
Shawn Chacon had a stinker in Arlington, and I'm not complaining, because he was due for that kind of game after performing better than we had a right to expect for many games. This isn't that surprising, because I would expect a low- to mid- 4's ERA from Chacon, and he is approaching that range now. If he keeps his ERA in that range, he will be fine for his role, but he isn't to be mistaken for a top of the rotation pitcher. Backe is the scariest problem, because he seems to be getting by on smoke and mirrors. He is leaving lots of guys on base and showing a high WHIP, which often isn't a good sign. Chris Sampson has been so bad that we have threads suggesting that Moehler should take his place; who would have predicted that line of thinking? Cassel in Round Rock might be a useful part of the rotation in the future, but he shouldn't be mistaken for a miracle cure. Getting Wandy back in the rotation will be a good thing, but we haven't seen enough of him this season to know whether he can have a breakthrough year.
So, that's where I get back to tonight's game. With all the signs that we may see some decline in other parts of our rotation, Oswalt is the best hope for an improvement which offsets that decline. I think the odds are good that Oswalt can get his ERA into his normal low- to mid- 3's by season end. Given his current ERA in the 5's, he will have to pitch some great games to achieve that accomplishment. Of all the potential positive things one could hope for in the rotation, this is the most probable.
If we want to see how things are looking for the season, then we need to see if Roy O is the stopper tonight.
