In another thread we started the closer debate and I displayed info on the average shelf life of the closer (four years). Valverde has already seen two of
those, so anytime long-term contract for him doesn't make a lot of sense. He is coming off of back to back 40+ save seasons and is second in the ML in
saves since 2007. Now, is the time to trade him if we don't intend to give him the long-term deal. He is under club control for another season, but will
almost certainly earn 10+ million following 2009. Here are three trade proposals I see happening:
1) The Bob Hulsey plan
Astros trade Valverde to the Mets for John Maine (10-8, 140 INN, 4.18 ERA) and Brian Schneider (.257 AVG, .339 OBP, 9 HR, .707 OPS). The Mets obviously are desperate for relief pitching and the Astros would get a cheap option for a 2-3 starter and a veteran behind the dish.
2) The Barzilla plan
Astros trade Valverde to the Indians for Victor Martinez (career .298/.370/.462) and Rafael Betancourt (career 3.23 ERA in 342 games). This is also what I would call the stock market plan. You are performing the classic buy low and sell high. Valverde is at his peak in value while both of these players are at their lowest in value. Betancourt sported a 5.07 ERA after five consecutive seasons with ERAs under four. Martinez sported a .701 OPS after four consecutive seasons above an .800 OPS. Meanwhile, the Indians as a team had only 31 saves and blew a ton.
3) The blockbuster plan
The Astros trade Valverde and Michael Bourn to the Tigers for Curtis Granderson (.280 AVG, .365 OBP, 22 HR, 12 SB). Granderson is one year removed from a season that saw him 20 HR, 20 SB, and 20 3B for the third time in big league history. The last time it happened was before WW1. He is only 27 years old and moving into prime contract mode. 2008 marked his third full season in the big leagues (parts of two others) and his 2008 numbers (.859 OPS) represent the same as his career numbers. Detroit is desperate for a closer and they might be willing to give you Granderson. I'd even sweeten the pot if I had to with another prospect.
1) The Bob Hulsey plan
Astros trade Valverde to the Mets for John Maine (10-8, 140 INN, 4.18 ERA) and Brian Schneider (.257 AVG, .339 OBP, 9 HR, .707 OPS). The Mets obviously are desperate for relief pitching and the Astros would get a cheap option for a 2-3 starter and a veteran behind the dish.
2) The Barzilla plan
Astros trade Valverde to the Indians for Victor Martinez (career .298/.370/.462) and Rafael Betancourt (career 3.23 ERA in 342 games). This is also what I would call the stock market plan. You are performing the classic buy low and sell high. Valverde is at his peak in value while both of these players are at their lowest in value. Betancourt sported a 5.07 ERA after five consecutive seasons with ERAs under four. Martinez sported a .701 OPS after four consecutive seasons above an .800 OPS. Meanwhile, the Indians as a team had only 31 saves and blew a ton.
3) The blockbuster plan
The Astros trade Valverde and Michael Bourn to the Tigers for Curtis Granderson (.280 AVG, .365 OBP, 22 HR, 12 SB). Granderson is one year removed from a season that saw him 20 HR, 20 SB, and 20 3B for the third time in big league history. The last time it happened was before WW1. He is only 27 years old and moving into prime contract mode. 2008 marked his third full season in the big leagues (parts of two others) and his 2008 numbers (.859 OPS) represent the same as his career numbers. Detroit is desperate for a closer and they might be willing to give you Granderson. I'd even sweeten the pot if I had to with another prospect.
