(All I can say after reading this is that if the Astros like their chances -- then so should we! ...and I felt that way BEFORE reading this piece by Lopez. See if their assuredness doesn't do the same thing for you looking to their chances of today. Hey, ...Rocket on the mound? It's a DONE DEAL! ain't it? -- Jimbob )

Oct. 20, 2004, 11:28PM

Astros like their chances, and so should their fans
By JOHN P. LOPEZ
Copyright 2004 Houston Chronicle

ST. LOUIS Win or lose today, it was the right call for Phil Garner to start Pete Munro on Wednesday, no matter that Munro couldn't get out of the third inning.

The bullpen made it right, tossing 9 2/3 innings of scoreless baseball and keeping the Astros within one swing of the bat of stealing this thing Wednesday night at Busch Stadium.

A rested Roger Clemens today and Roy Oswalt available out of the bullpen in what will be the only appropriate last act of a captivating drama a Game 7 made it right. Brad Lidge throwing only 32 pitches despite three innings of work made it right.

But that won't stop the second-guessing, particularly if the Astros lose today.

Why give St. Louis a second chance, you'll be asking? Why risk shifting momentum to the Cardinals, which is exactly what happened and in grand fashion at that, when Jim Edmonds slammed a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 12th inning for a 6-4 Game 6 win?

Why bring in reliever Dan Miceli in that situation, when he was pounded by the heart of the Cardinals' lineup in Game 2? Why put all those innings on your bullpen? Why take three innings out of Lidge's phenomenal arm?

Such are the questions Astros fans will mull over and perhaps anguish about for weeks, months and years if things do not work out today.

Don't.

The only thing Garner and the Astros hoped for from the start of this series this season, in fact was an opportunity to give their best players a chance to earn a World Series berth.

Today, they have that chance.

"I always follow the theory that no pitcher is unbeatable," Astros catcher Brad Ausmus said. "That being said, I'm glad (Clemens) is on our team."

This has been a series that has been filled with unorthodox decisions that backfired. Two of the biggest were Cardinals manager Tony La Russa choosing to intentionally walk Lance Berkman in Game 5 to get to Jeff Kent, and Wednesday's decision to walk Carlos Beltran in favor of facing Jeff Bagwell in the top of the ninth.

Neither worked. After La Russa committed a managerial Cardinal sin by putting the potential winning run on base, Bagwell yanked a run-scoring single to left field, scoring Morgan Ensberg, who was (had been) hit by a pitch. Fortunately for La Russa, the Cardinals got out of that inning when Berkman struck out.

"He thought, probably, that I would be able to drive in the run," Beltran said. "I feel happy that Bagwell came through right there. That's what we've been doing all year. If they don't want to pitch to one guy, they're going to have to pitch to the other one. We've been picking each other up all year."

Three innings later, the Cardinals bounced off the field in a scene quite similar to that after Kent homered to win Game 5.

But let's remember the age-old baseball axiom about momentum. It's only as strong as the next game's starting pitcher. The Cardinals are going with Jeff Suppan, a solid starter. The Astros have Clemens on four days of rest.

"The fact that we lost this game, but we come back knowing we have Clemens is comforting," Berkman said. "Not only that, but we've got Roy and maybe Lidge. It's game seven. It's no holds barred. I certainly feel good about who we have on the mound. That gives us the best chance to win."

The reality of Wednesday's near-miss at Busch is that it could well have gone much the same way had Clemens come back on short rest for the second time this postseason.

Every postseason statistic on pitchers returning on three days of rest indicates success in those situations is limited. Clemens might have gutted out six innings but not much more. Lidge still would have had to throw two innings, maybe three. And had the Astros lost, Oswalt would have had to return today on three days' rest after hardly looking like himself in Game 4.

This emotional, backs-to-the-wall postseason has taken a huge toll on both teams. Oswalt has looked tired. Clemens is 42 years old, even if he is something of a physical freak when it comes to conditioning.

"Every day is draining," Bagwell said. "Every pitch. Very, very draining. If you asked everybody in here, all the guys that haven't been this far before, they'll tell you they haven't been this tired, ever."

The Astros didn't lose their best chance to beat the Cardinals on Wednesday. Their best chance is today and credit the much-maligned, exhausted bullpen for that.

First came the Chads Harville and Qualls cleaning up for Munro. Then came Dan Wheeler throwing two scoreless innings, followed by Lidge throwing untouchable stuff for three.

Had the Astros taken a lead in the top of the 12th, Oswalt would have entered, and maybe the night would have ended with the Astros drenching themselves in champagne. But they didn't. The only choice became Miceli.

"We didn't lose the game because of our bullpen," Ausmus said. "There's no one that was used (Wednesday) that won't be available (today)."

Before this season began, before the injury to Andy Pettitte, the trades that shipped Richard Hidalgo and Octavio Dotel, the slumps, the slides, the remarkable season-ending drive to the postseason, the Astros wanted only one thing.

With a trip to the World Series on the line, they wanted Clemens rested and ready, the bats hot and the bullpen doing its job. They talked from the start about this being "our turn."

Well, it's Clemens' turn in Game 7. This is what they've wanted all along.

john.lopez@chron.com
Jimbob
"Still fighting, screaming, kicking & gouging the Astros
(whether the INTERIM MGR. needs my help or not!)
to the top of the NL Central!"