According to someone on a Cardinal fan board, the Astros are prepared to trade Jason Hirsh to the Brewers for Carlos Lee. First, here is the link for everyone's edification:
www.stltoday.com/forums/v...p?t=364341
My first reaction was "okay, whatver" and the odds on this are still slim, but a couple of things perked my interest on this.
1) No one ever hears anything from the Astros until it is practically done.
2) What positive motive would a Cardinals fan have to make up a rumor about another team?
3) The Brewers are trying to build a good young nucleus and Lee will be a free agent.
4) One prospect for a good hitter is not a lot to give up these days.
Let me profile both players
Hirsh
W-L: 5-2
GS: 12
INN: 70.1
ERA: 2.94
SO: 55
BB: 30
HR: 4
Much like my cousin Philip, Hirsh got off to a slow start, but has his mojo going now. The keys for him are the home runs allowed. Apparently he is learning to keep the ball down. That produces fewer Ks, but also produces fewer gopher balls. He is still striking out an above average total. The only task for him now is to improve his control.
Lee
. . . . . .AVG. . .OBP. . .SLG. . .HR. . .SO. . .BB
1999. . .293. . .312. . ..463. . .16. . .72. . ..13
2000. . .301. . .345. . ..484. . .24. . .94. . ..38
2001. . .269. . .321. . ..468. . .24. . .85. . ..38
2002. . .264. . .359. . ..484. . .26. . .73. . ..75
2003. . .291. . .331. . ..499. . .31. . .91. . ..37
2004. . .305. . .366. . ..525. . .31. . .86. . ..54
2005. . .265. . .324. . ..487. . .32. . .87. . ..57
2006. . .271. . .346. . ..569. . .19. . .22. . ..27
First of all, let's look at why the Astros might like him:
1) Earning "only" 8.5 million makes him a relative bargain in comparison with the other major bats available. If they make this trade at this point they woule only be on the hook for about two-thirds of that rate. By my math that would be a little more than five million dollars.
2) Unlike "Private Punch Out" (as my uncle likes to call Wilson) or the other big bats in our lineup, Lee has never whiffed more than 94 times and is on a pace to do so under 70 times this season.
3) Like most players of his size, he is growing into his power potential. His home runs have stabalized or gone up every season of his career. So, while his OBPs have fluctuated, his slugging percentages have steadily improved giving him five seasons with OPSs of 811 or above.
What not to like:
1) You are surrendering a major arm for a player who will become a free agent. We will have the money to sign him, but is a player that has mustered only one season with an OPS better than 900 (this year) worth ten million a year or more?
2) He has settled into a 50+ walk a year player which is decent, but not the kind of patience you want in a top-notch slugger.
3) He is stuck in left field because of his lack of speed which means Wilson would have to move to right field.
All things considered I would probably pull the trigger on this one because it is only one prospect going out. I'm not sold that one hitter is the answer to our offensive woes, but here is what the lineup would look like in terms of OPS.
. . . . . . . . .OBP. . . .SLG. . . .OPS
Biggio. . . . .346.. . . .444. . . .790
Burke. . . . .341.. . . .439. . . ..780
Berkman. . .379.. . . .594. . . ..973
Ensberg. . ..384.. . . .573. . . .957
Lee. . . . . ..346. . . ..569. . . .915
Wilson. . . ..306. . . ..405. . . .711
Ausmus. . ..382. . . ..386. . . .768
Everett. . ...274. . ...310. . . .584
With seven hitters in the lineup above .700 in OPS I think we would start to score runs more consistently. Everett is the lone black hole, but as long as he is the only one it won't hurt our offense too much.
www.stltoday.com/forums/v...p?t=364341
My first reaction was "okay, whatver" and the odds on this are still slim, but a couple of things perked my interest on this.
1) No one ever hears anything from the Astros until it is practically done.
2) What positive motive would a Cardinals fan have to make up a rumor about another team?
3) The Brewers are trying to build a good young nucleus and Lee will be a free agent.
4) One prospect for a good hitter is not a lot to give up these days.
Let me profile both players
Hirsh
W-L: 5-2
GS: 12
INN: 70.1
ERA: 2.94
SO: 55
BB: 30
HR: 4
Much like my cousin Philip, Hirsh got off to a slow start, but has his mojo going now. The keys for him are the home runs allowed. Apparently he is learning to keep the ball down. That produces fewer Ks, but also produces fewer gopher balls. He is still striking out an above average total. The only task for him now is to improve his control.
Lee
. . . . . .AVG. . .OBP. . .SLG. . .HR. . .SO. . .BB
1999. . .293. . .312. . ..463. . .16. . .72. . ..13
2000. . .301. . .345. . ..484. . .24. . .94. . ..38
2001. . .269. . .321. . ..468. . .24. . .85. . ..38
2002. . .264. . .359. . ..484. . .26. . .73. . ..75
2003. . .291. . .331. . ..499. . .31. . .91. . ..37
2004. . .305. . .366. . ..525. . .31. . .86. . ..54
2005. . .265. . .324. . ..487. . .32. . .87. . ..57
2006. . .271. . .346. . ..569. . .19. . .22. . ..27
First of all, let's look at why the Astros might like him:
1) Earning "only" 8.5 million makes him a relative bargain in comparison with the other major bats available. If they make this trade at this point they woule only be on the hook for about two-thirds of that rate. By my math that would be a little more than five million dollars.
2) Unlike "Private Punch Out" (as my uncle likes to call Wilson) or the other big bats in our lineup, Lee has never whiffed more than 94 times and is on a pace to do so under 70 times this season.
3) Like most players of his size, he is growing into his power potential. His home runs have stabalized or gone up every season of his career. So, while his OBPs have fluctuated, his slugging percentages have steadily improved giving him five seasons with OPSs of 811 or above.
What not to like:
1) You are surrendering a major arm for a player who will become a free agent. We will have the money to sign him, but is a player that has mustered only one season with an OPS better than 900 (this year) worth ten million a year or more?
2) He has settled into a 50+ walk a year player which is decent, but not the kind of patience you want in a top-notch slugger.
3) He is stuck in left field because of his lack of speed which means Wilson would have to move to right field.
All things considered I would probably pull the trigger on this one because it is only one prospect going out. I'm not sold that one hitter is the answer to our offensive woes, but here is what the lineup would look like in terms of OPS.
. . . . . . . . .OBP. . . .SLG. . . .OPS
Biggio. . . . .346.. . . .444. . . .790
Burke. . . . .341.. . . .439. . . ..780
Berkman. . .379.. . . .594. . . ..973
Ensberg. . ..384.. . . .573. . . .957
Lee. . . . . ..346. . . ..569. . . .915
Wilson. . . ..306. . . ..405. . . .711
Ausmus. . ..382. . . ..386. . . .768
Everett. . ...274. . ...310. . . .584
With seven hitters in the lineup above .700 in OPS I think we would start to score runs more consistently. Everett is the lone black hole, but as long as he is the only one it won't hurt our offense too much.
